Report No. : GEO Report No. 144

Report Title : Correlations between Rainfall, Landslide Frequency and Slope Information for Registered Man-made Slopes (2004), 109 p.

Author : Y.F. Yu


Statistical methods and database manipulation have been used to study the correlation between rainfall, landslide frequency and slope information for registered man-made slopes. The approach can be summarised as follows:

The correlations for soil cut slopes, rock cut slopes, fill slopes and retaining walls appear to follow a semi-log relationship. Slope characteristics such as slope height and angle have a significant effect on the correlations. Based on the correlations, corresponding models have been proposed and used to predict the number of landslides expected for the selected rainstorms in the years 1984 to 2000. The assessment of the expected numbers of landslides shows that the numbers of landslides predicted by the proposed models are reasonably close to the actual numbers of landslides, especially for the soil cut slopes. Uncertainties in the models include errors in the estimation of rainfall intensities by interpolation, and improvement of slopes under the LPM, maintenance and development programmes. It is therefore recommended that the correlations and the landslide prediction models are kept under review.

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